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AIDS Study in Africa Shows Decline Amid Growing Epidemic

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Mining Information from Mountain of Scientific Data
Front Page

 

 

SOCIAL MEDICINE

AIDS Study in Africa Shows Decline Amid Growing Epidemic

As Carnegie fellow at HMS, Japhet Killewo and colleagues have addressed the AIDS epidemic in Tanzania and are generating data to determine and implement the most effective interventions.

A study of HIV-1 infection in Tanzania led by Japhet Killewo, a returned Carnegie fellow in the Department of Social Medicine, is helping to define the nature of the epidemic in that country—part of sub-Saharan Africa, a region that has the highest HIV/AIDS prevalence in the world. The data show that infection is declining, but they do not yet reveal a thorough explanation.
    Killewo and three colleagues, also returned Carnegie fellows, presented their research on April 14, the first day of a two-day conference in Cambridge marking the 10th and final year of the department's Carnegie Fellowship Program in Health and Behavior.
    The long-term, population-based study focuses on the Kagera region of Tanzania, south of Uganda, between Lake Victoria on the east and Rwanda and Burundi on the west. The country's first AIDS cases were identified there in 1983.
    Killewo, the principal investigator, and colleagues collected data for 1987, 1993, and 1996, representing a cross section of the population. The researchers also carried out sentinel surveillance of pregnant women in 1990, '93, and '96 to see if this group could serve as a proxy for the population at large. Their methods were described during the conference by Gideon Kwesigabo, who, along with Killewo, is from the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Tanzania's Muhimbili University College of Health Sciences. The goal is to determine the magnitude and trends of HIV infection, the risk factors associated with its spread, the social and anthropological context, and the impact of interventions.

 

Age-Specific HIV-a Prevalence Bukoba Town, 1987, '93, '96

Males

    Year  
Age Group 1987 1993 1996
15-24 11.1 6.5 16.4
25-35 22.4 18.9 16.4
35+ 19.3 27.6 15.2
Total 17.1 17.3 10.4

Females

    Year  
Age Group 1987 1993 1996
15-24 27.5 11.2 7.3
25-35 35.8 33.1 21.4
35+ 18.7 13.3 17.7
Total 29.2 18.7 14.4

 

Though AIDS prevalence shows an overall decline in Bukoba, the rate has increased among young men. And except for young women, females have a higher prevalence than males.

 

Promising Numbers
The most urbanized area of Kagera, the town of Bukoba, has the highest prevalence. In 1987, 24.2 percent of the population was infected, a proportion that declined to 18.0 percent in 1993 and 12.8 percent in 1996. Females had generally higher rates than males (see charts). The 1989 incidence rate of HIV infection in Bukoba was 47.5 new cases per 1,000 people per year and, in 1996, 5.6 new cases per 1,000 people per year. (The rates represent 16 new cases found in 1989 and seven in 1996.)
    What accounts for the steep decline? Though the percentage of men using condoms increased from 22.6 percent in 1993 to 30.3 percent in 1996, the average number of sexual partners in the past year also increased (though slightly) from 1.2 to 1.3. But these findings do not adequately answer the question.
    In another of the presentations, Joe Lugalla, now of the Department of Anthropology at the University of New Hampshire, suggested that the maturation of the epidemic, improvement of medical services, and government and nongovernment programs may have contributed to the decline. Another factor, he said, is "AIDS agony," people witnessing the suffering, dying, and destitution due to AIDS and social changes like the rising number of single parents and orphans. Patrick Masanja, of the Department of Sociology at the University of Dar es Salaam, said that in 1997 the number of orphans under age 15 in Tanzania was an estimated 620,000 out of a population of 31,507,000.
    According to Killewo, the researchers are generating 1999 figures for the prevalence and incidence of HIV infection, working closely with Tanzania's National AIDS Control Program to ensure that the most effective interventions are implemented.
    "Although infection rates have declined in this region of Tanzania, other countries are still experiencing a rapid expansion of HIV," says Max Essex, chair of the Harvard AIDS Institute at HSPH. "In countries such as Zimbabwe and Botswana, HIV has already infected more than a third of young adults. Sub-Saharan Africa now accounts for 85 percent of all new HIV infections in the world."
    AIDS is an outstanding example of a disease that demands multidisciplinary approaches. Killewo says the Kagera project was initiated by a group of Swedish researchers looking for collaborators to study the epidemic, who met with Tanzanian scientists in 1986. Funding came from the Swedish and Tanzanian governments. After starting the project, Killewo spent nine months at HMS in 1991–92 as a Carnegie fellow. "We found we needed a major collaboration in the social science disciplines," he says.
    The Carnegie fellowship program began in 1989, the first fellows coming to HMS the following year. The principal investigator of the program is Arthur Kleinman, chair of the Department of Social Medicine. The fellowships support interdisciplinary training for faculty in the biomedical and social sciences in East Africa, fostering a broad, collaborative approach to public health problems.

—Robert Neal

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